An honest tech tree for civilization · 14 bottleneck technologies
howclose.to
How close are we? — tracked by milestone, metric and setback. Never a fake percentage.
EST. 2026 · UPDATED JULY 2026
The example · Nuclear Fusion · Can we bottle a star?How close are we to fusion power?
The example · Nuclear Fusion · Can we bottle a star?How close are we to fusion power?Open the Nuclear Fusion file → howclose.to/problems/nuclear-fusion
The recordThe scoreboard
14 trackedEvery number is an editorial judgment with a named next test.No hype. Every bar tells you the next real-world test.
Nuclear Fusion
Energy · Engineering · accelerating
NEXT: SPARC targets Q>10, 2027
40%TO Engineering breakevenMake the whole power station pay back its energy
AGI
Intelligence · Engineering · accelerating
NEXT: ARC-AGI-2 and held-out expert evals resistant to training-data leakage
62%TO Broad cognitive competenceLearn many different kinds of work
General Robotics
Labor · Lab demo · accelerating
NEXT: Independent long-horizon manipulation trials on tools and deformable objects, e.g. pi-0.6 field runs
30%TO Dexterous manipulationHandle unfamiliar objects and tools
Cheap Space Launch
Space · Scaling · accelerating
NEXT: First Starship upper-stage (Ship) tower-catch attempt, targeted for Flight 13/14 in 2026
35%TO Rapid full reuseReuse the whole rocket, fast
Healthy Longevity
Biology · Lab demo · steady
NEXT: Regulatory qualification of DunedinPACE-class clocks as surrogate endpoints in interventional trials
30%TO Validated aging biomarkersMeasure aging before decades pass
Room-temp Superconductors
Materials · Lab demo · stalled
NEXT: Independent diamond-anvil replication of any superhydride claim above 273 K
65%TO Superconductivity above 0°C at any pressureBeat the freezing point of water, even inside a vise
Clean Hydrogen
Energy · Scaling · accelerating
NEXT: IEA's next annual inventory can test whether the more than 2.5 GW under construction for 2026 actually enters service.
40%TO Ten-gigawatt installed baseBuild the first 10 GW
Direct Air Capture
Climate · Scaling · accelerating
NEXT: STRATOS must start sequestration and disclose independently verified net output through a full operating year.
55%TO Hundred-Thousand-Tonne PlantMove beyond small plants
Enhanced geothermal
Energy · Engineering · accelerating
NEXT: Cape Phase II must show its 21-day representative result across a fleet and disclose full completed-well cost.
75%TO Repeatable fast drillingDrill many wells quickly
Fault-Tolerant Quantum
Compute · Lab demo · accelerating
NEXT: Run a multi-logical-qubit universal circuit through repeated correction with a lower total failure rate than its physical implementation.
35%TO Integrated Universal Logical OperationsCompute while correcting
Near-Zero Cement
Materials · Scaling · steady
NEXT: A novel-route producer must run a kilotonne-scale plant and publish strength, durability, EPD and cost data.
35%TO Drop-In Alternative BinderReplace the kiln chemistry
100-Day Vaccines
Biology · Engineering · steady
NEXT: CEPI 3.0 must publish viral-family coverage and demonstrate that a stored prototype can accelerate a novel related-virus response.
55%TO Response-Ready Prototype LibraryPrepare before the outbreak
Speech BCI
Biology · Engineering · accelerating
NEXT: Achieve under-10% listener WER on unseen spontaneous sentences with independently controlled pitch and emphasis.
60%TO Real-time expressive voiceRestore a natural voice
Xenotransplant
Biology · Engineering · accelerating
NEXT: Publish a verified 365-day graft-function result, including GFR, rejection episodes and immunosuppression.
74%TO Sustain one dialysis-free yearLast a full year
FEATURED · NUCLEAR FUSION
Scientific ignitionGet more energy out of the fuel than we shine in '22Engineering breakevenMake the whole power station pay back its energy 40%Grid economicsMake fusion cheap enough for the grid 12%
Read the fusion analysis →FIGURE 1 · THE DEPENDENCY GRAPHWHAT UNLOCKS WHAT
What unlocks whatEvery breakthrough opens a door
A research map of the bottleneck technologies that move civilization forward.See the breakthroughs that have to happen before the future gets easier.